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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: June 30th, 2023

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  • The real estate market doesn’t account for 30% of the economy. Though I suppose there’s a bunch of way to measure “the economy”.

    There is pent up demand for housing yet property marketing is dropping. Actually it may have bottomed out but who knows. Beijing wants to correct it and that’s what’s been happening.

    I have property in tier 1 and tier 2, it dropped to pre covid levels. I wasn’t doing property for quick flips but I definitely noticed it.

    The scars of covid are everywhere in China just like most countries. its going to take a while for it to recover. just like everywhere else.

    China collapse remains a click bait dream for the time being if you ask me.







  • There’s a very simple way to measure the migration of manufacturing out of China.

    get a list of the top ten cargo ports in the world. count how many are mainland China?

    7 or 8 right?

    okay let’s go down the list until we get Vietnam or India or someplace where’d you’d expect the manufacturing to go to.

    aight… now compare all the cargo capacity for that entire country to one of the eight ports in China? tell you what, let’s include India, and Rotterdam, and LA… just add them all together. How many of 8 does it take to keep up with that 2 or 3 ?

    so, cargo shipping capacity… big difference right? day light.

    Vietnam wants to make iPhones. you gotta ship 110% of the various bits into Vietnam and then ship out 99% of the finished goods.

    all those ports come with piles and piles of back end infrastructure. roads. trucking. rail. skilled workers…

    there are infinite alternatives to China. but it will take 40 years to develop any of them to that level.