Months after virtually disappearing from Ukraine’s skies, the Ukrainian armed forces’ Bayraktar TB-2 drones are back in action.
Videos that appeared online on Sunday depict the 1,500-pound, propeller-driven drones—which can range hundreds of miles—striking a Russian patrol boat and supply truck in occupied southern Ukraine.
That TB-2s are venturing south into nominally Russian-controlled air space implies two things: that Kyiv has managed to rebuild its TB-2 force, nine months after Russian air-defenses badly attrited the 70-drone force.
The TB-2’s dramatic reappearance also points to the steady degradation of Russian air-defenses across swathes of southern Ukraine as Kyiv’s 2023 counteroffensive grinds into its fourth month—and Ukrainian brigades make slow but steady progress along two main axes in southern Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk Oblasts.
This is not good news for Russia.
The TB2 drone is slow and not stealthy. It’s relatively cheap compared to something like a Predator or Reaper, but still isn’t anywhere near disposable. It’s a sitting duck for any sort of serious air defense, and it’s most effective when air defenses are little or none.
If UA is succeeding in harming RU’s air defenses, that could signal a larger shift in the war. UA has had a very successful ‘dial for bullets’ campaign getting more and more modern munitions out of Western allies, and from what I’ve heard that is starting to include actual combat aircraft. If UA is dismantling RU’s air defenses, and if UA gets modern aircraft of their own, there’s a possibility that UA could end up claiming air superiority over much of their territory. And THAT is a game changer.
It seems unlikely on the face of it, as RU has a great many modern aircraft and pilots to match. But then again, since the start of the war, RU has gone from the 2nd best military in the world, to the 2nd best military in Ukraine, to (up until Prigozhin blinked) the 2nd best military in Russia. So maybe their reserves of functional combat aircraft are overstated.
Either way though, this is NOT good news for Russia.
When Ukraine began drone strikes deep into Russian territory the Russians were forced to pull back some air defense units from the front line. That might be part of the reason Ukraine is able to mount attacks with TB-2s now.
Interesting. And also concerning for Russia. As @DarkThoughts pointed out below, if they are pulling air defense from anywhere it suggests they are running out of equipment. Which is surprising, because air superiority is critical for them to maintain what they’ve taken in Ukraine let alone prevent strikes on their own territory.
I would think that whoever’s in charge of RU’s military would understand this and prioritize it, and/or could explain to Great Leader how important it is that no matter what else happens that UA not own the skies. If that’s not happening then either that guy’s a moron, or Putin isn’t listening, or the RU air force / military procurement system is in much worse shape than we thought.
If UA gets air superiority over their own held territory, and especially over contested territory, then the ‘special military operation’ might as well be over.
Oh Putin is listening but everyone knows better than to tell him things he doesn’t want to hear.
And Shoigu isn’t a moron as such. He’s very good at not being a threat to the presidency and thus keeping his position.