Despite billions of dollars in additional weapons and security assistance that NATO announced this week, allied officials said Ukraine would not be ready to launch a dramatic counteroffensive or retake large swaths of territory from Russia until next year.
Donations of missiles, combat vehicles, ammunition and air defenses from the United States and European countries will take weeks, if not months, to reach the front lines.
Some of the newly committed weapons have not yet been bought or built.
That’s not what is being reported. They are still making advances. Even pro-Ukrainian channels are reporting this.
Its an interesting point, but possibly unlikely f16 would be deployed on the eastern side initially (where they are most needed), suspect their initial proving ground would be Crimea. Ukrainians have for some time now, been hitting russian SAM sites and radar installations in the area. It is also close to the “neutral” sea where NATO awacs and other spy drones can fly and monitor the situation (as well as warn Ukraine if russians scramble jets or any other countermeasures) as an advance warning system. We will very likely see their first use in this theatre as a test ground. And if this works out, we might see them being rolled out on the rest of the eastern front, but that is quite some time away practically. It will most likely depend if Ukraine has enough HIMARS ammunition to overwhelm and destroy more SAM sites it those areas.
For sure, we seen the videos of some fights, it seems Bradley is the vehicle of choice in Ukraine at least in the released videos.
Kinda false, there are a number of videos showing artillery hitting moving targets, maybe those are rare, but they are non-zero. Now I tend to hang around pro-Ukraine telegram channels so tend to see more pro-Ukrainian videos, but to suggest that russians can’t do something similar (even if rarely) is statistical insanity. I keep saying, if they (russians) were entirely incompetent across the board, the front lines would not be moving against Ukraine.
There are a number of videos of Ukrainians doing just that, even more where the target is first immobilised with FPV drone and then hit with artillery very shortly after the crew bails, indicating cooperation between drone and artillery groups but a small delay for artillery to wait for the target to be stationary and hit it pretty accurately.
If the glide bombs are easy to intercept, why are Uranians complaining about them all the time? If the front lines report its still a problem for them I am more likely to believe the news coming out of there than high command. The issue is where russians are using glide bombs in anger, is unlikely to be the first place where f16s are deployed, at least not initially. Which still presents an issue for Ukraine.
For the British side, they have quietly pulled the permission for storm shadow use inside Russia, just a couple examples. I am not sure how fake these are, but pro-Uranian telegram channel has reposted similar news. Permission was very publicly granted and than quietly “clarified”. Now if this some kind of confusion psyop or not, I am not sure. But the west seems to still be not entirely aligned. In fact I really hope it i just some kind of psyop thing to be honest.
https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/07/12/uk-clarifies-stance-on-storm-shadow-missiles-denies-permission-for-use-in-russia/ https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3885635-expert-criticizes-ban-on-strikes-on-russia-when-we-strike-with-our-own-weapons-there-is-no-escalation.html
As for the American systems, it seems odd that if Ukraine already has unlimited permission, why are there still articles about Ukraine asking for it repeatedly? Again maybe more deception from Ukraine, perhaps. I donno what to think. All I wish is for all restrictions to be lifted.
Absolutely agreed, it would be a terrible place to be in if all USA aid stopped, Europe already proved, it is not enough by itself to supply Ukraine adequately. And with US presidential election looming, it is really worrying me. Thankfully LePen didn’t win, as she threatened to revoke permission from using French weapons in russia.
To be honest, we both want Ukraine to win, and all was saying is that in a modern war where both sides have access to a lot of resources, there are no wonder weapons that will shift the game sufficiently to push for a quick win and that we should not underestimate the enemy. Things help and we in the West, should be doing more to help.
Advancements of a few sq. kms a day mean nothing compared to 2022 or 2023 style movements that the Russian 1st Guards Tank Army (when Russia attacks) or Ukrainian Counter-offensive (in late 2022) performed.
The line is more static today than ever before.
It requires special rounds like Copperhead (laser guided artillery), or BONUS (Infrared Guided / Heat guided Artillery). These rounds are very special and are not typical artillery. And they only work in very specific circumstances.
Copperhead needs someone at the frontline shining a laser to pinpoint the target. BONUS only works vs hot tanks or vehicles. So “some”, very rare very expensive artillery rounds, can hit a moving target. But we can ignore them for the most part since the 99% of artillery rounds used are dumb rounds.
Because Ukrainian defenses only work vs glide bombs if they have an ambush setup. And Ukrainians have very few anti-air missiles. Russia only has to attack randomly along the front, and the Ukrainian ground defenses are too slow to reposition to the movements of Russian aircraft.
But Ukraine is 100% allowed to intercept and kill Russian fighter/bombers using these glide bombs. Ukraine simply doesn’t have the capacity to effectively and reliably do so however. That’s why F16s are so important, they are fast enough to launch air-to-air missiles vs the glide bombers and whittle the Russian aircraft down more reliably.
Its not what you said earlier. What the Ukrainians wish is for more permissions. Ukrainians want deep strikes that can target Russian Air Bases. Ukraine wants to hit the fighter/bombers on the ground before they take off. These locations are so deep into Russia that USA is nervous about authorizing it, as it’d definitely be another escalation.
But Ukraine is 100% allowed (and already has), shot down Russian fighter/bombers on glide bomb maneuvers. Its a difficult shot for a ground-to-air system like Patriot. But it should get much easier to do after F16s arrive.
F16s should be key for the glide-bomb problem. But I’m seeing estimates that Ukraine needs 200+ F16s for that to really be enough.
A dozen or so F16s is barely moving the needle. But at least Ukraine has some F16s coming and can start doing something about that particular problem.
Look don’t listen to me, but please listen to an analyst from an English language, pro-ukranian telegram channel https://t.me/WarriorsUkrainian/32207
The lines are not static.
Thanks for explaining about the guided artillery, i did not know how that worked.