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How I read this poll: 55% of Canadians want a party to the political left of the Conservatives to win.
How our FPTP system reads this poll: 70% of ridings want the Conservatives to win.
I wish Trudeau had kept his promise for election reform, would come in handy for the party now!
Easy. He just has to open the constitution to make those reforms. Nothing bad ever happens when we try to change the constitution. All the provinces always agree and there is definitely no lingering constitutional issues that we haven’t been able to resolve in more than four decades.
He shouldn’t have made that promise. He should have been aware that electoral reforms would need to change the constitution and that every time we try do that, the country nearly implodes. So we just keep status quo until the constitutional crisis will be big enough that we can’t ignore it anymore. I don’t know what he was thinking. Maybe he thought we would all forget about it.
I hate this mentality of bucketing Liberals and NDP together. They’re different parties with different policies, and one of the main benefits of PR is that leftists don’t have to compromise our values and vote Liberal just to prevent Conservatives from winning. Treating it like left vs right just pushes us towards the Democrat vs Republican in the US.
Ever since the merger of the Progressive Conservative party and the Reform party, the new Conservative party is now taking all the votes of anyone leaning right. Meanwhile, anyone sitting left of them is split up into multiple parties, which actually represents more Canadians proportionally. But, because of the system that we have, the Conservatives are always closer to the majority or have majority.
There was a bit of a break in the right with Maxime Bernier’s new far-right party, but PP is working really hard to cater to these people to go get their votes.
This is the same argument that my original comment is against. You just labelled the Liberal + NDP bucket as “left”.
If we had a ranked ballot (I don’t actually want ranked ballot, but it’s useful for demonstrating my point), I would rank NDP as 1 and not rank Liberals or CPC because I don’t like either of them. Just because the Liberals are left of the CPC does not make them “left”, and does not magically earn them every NDP vote.
Likewise, I’m sure there are Liberal voters who would rather have CPC than NDP.
There is no collective “left” of all NDP + Liberal voters.
This is the same argument that my original comment is against. You just labelled the Liberal + NDP bucket as “left”.
No. I said anyone sitting left of them, as in left of the conservative party. God knows that the Liberal party is neoliberal which isn’t left at all. Just slightly left of the CPC.
There is no collective “left” of all NDP + Liberal voters.
Well that’s true. And that’s what I was trying to say in my comment. The real “left” isn’t voting for the Liberals. But the real “left” is broken down into multiple parties, with the NDP being the biggest one.
That being said, that’s one of the reasons why the CPC is so strong compared to the rest. And that’s also why the NDP had to make an alliance with the Liberal party. This allows them to pass legislation with a little bit of compromise from both NDP and Liberals.
Treating it like left vs right just pushes us towards the Democrat vs Republican in the US.
Anything the US does Canada does just a little later.
Ah fuck off. People voting for both liberal or NDP would prefer either one to win over the conservatives any day of the week.
That’s probably true for NDP voters (i.e. they’d rather have a Liberal government than CPC), but I don’t think it’s true that Liberal voters would rather have NDP than Conservative.
We’re both just speculating though, there’s probably some actual info on this from people studying ranked ballots
Good news folks Pierre Poilievre conservatives are losing steam.
I’m hoping to see their popularity drop off a cliff
If Trudeau doesn’t do a Biden and walk away it’s unlikely PP will lose. :/
It won’t matter what he does, we will swap to the cons on the next election because it’s been 10 years.
FPTP always trends towards a 2 party System.
It’s why I laugh when people think the Republican party will be non electable in the US. Give it a couple terms and people will want the Dems out.
It really depends on if any Rs face actual consequences for the shit they are definitely going to try and pull in regards to a fair election. Also whether there are “moderate” Dems that continue to prevent real progress.
The liberals need to also stop being selfish and actually compromise with the smaller parties and independents for electoral reform.
Thats definitely going to happen 😏
The liberals need more pressure.
The LPC would rather swap chairs with the CPC every few years than give the NDP any credibility.
The current system suits them just fine. A system where they can’t get a majority with 35% of the vote isn’t something they’re interested in.
There’s no amount of pressure that’ll change this. It’ll take the NDP and BQ pulling off a surprise win and ramming PR through.
What is more pressure going to do? Except for STV, electoral reform is a losing game for the LPC.
We gotta keep exposing them with their past actions. I believe Pierre Poilievre will drop hard eventually.
It’s important to remember that they must win a majority to form government. The LPC can coalition but the CPC would be a plurality opposition government.
Conservatives projected to equal the sum of Liberal + NDP in the popular vote. When was the last time they were that popular? Brian Mulroney? That wasn’t even the same Conservative party, but people seem to have forgotten that.
I would argue conservatives voters are more likely to answer the polls calls as they want to “send a message”
Perhaps, but that seems unlikely to have changed so much since last year. Something else has shifted to make Poilievre and the Cons seem more acceptable to people than they did. Perhaps their party leader has learned to stop saying ridiculously stupid things in public quite so often. Excepting those carefully selected ridiculous things which have proved popular of course, such as “axe the tax” and “common sense.”
Also phones scare us.
I would argue conservatives voters are more likely to answer the polls calls as they want to “send a message”
Historically this very incorrect, and most of the Conservatives I know don’t trust the polls even if the CPC is ahead and so have no desire to participate.
So do you have anything to actually back that statement up, or is it just a feeling?
I would laugh so hard if the Bloc Québécois became the official opposition.
Obviously you aren’t that old, because it wasn’t terribly long ago that they were.
What do you consider “not terribly long ago” is now 30 years. I was around 12 then and wasn’t really into politics, so forgive me for not remembering.
Emphasis on the ‘terribly’, then.
Well let’s hope for enough lib / NDP votes to ensure the weirdos don’t get a majority.
I never really know with Conservatives voters, but I think the start of divergence of the Liberals and Conservative around June/July 2023 was around the time they decided to implement the Online News Act that temporarily dropped news from Google feeds and permanently from Facebook.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/google-canada-online-news-1.6892879
I think the Liberal incompetence at handling modern social media will end up costing them a lot of votes. Although I still stand by my prediction that by 2029ish Pierre will be one of the most despised Canadians.
Trudeau promised voter reform and then lied and didn’t follow through. I will never vote for him again. NDP all the way.
Things have changed so much in one year.
We need a cordon sanitaire to stop the cons.
![[Polls] 338Canada popular vote projection](https://lemmy.ca/pictrs/image/a3266bf6-e969-4a4c-90c1-160d59959420.png){kind=link}