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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: June 24th, 2023

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  • Not US-based, German, but residential prices go crazy here as well.

    For me it was the best decision to buy a house. For two reasons: you surf on the asset inflation as well. Moving to a new house last year wasn’t that pricey as I only had to borrow the difference old vs new bigger house.

    Second reason is psychology: I don’t know somebody who has stocks in their account in same height as a house price. Paying mortgage forces you to save money. Having a (low) 6-digit stock account, feels being rich and money flows out into buying things.






  • I think you might be alluding to timing the market? In that case you’re “speculating”, not “investing”. Speculation is making a(n educated) guess about market directions. Investment is earning an expected return over time on capital.

    That might actually my different view point.

    I think one should time the market or even trying to do so. There aren’t always good times. I mean that thing of „time in market beats market timing“ is for buy&forget investors who don’t want to put much effort in their finances. If you care, you see which area is a go and which a no-go at a certain moment in time.

    That speculating vs investing is well written. I‘m not a native English speaker and put both under the umbrella of „Investor“ - who actually does both. So for me „speculating“ is key when you buy a stock or asset.

    Having, even a rough, idea of how the price is and how it might move should be essential. And with this mindset the price of buying is important only. Because you won’t buy a going to decrease asset, would you? Charles Munger and all those other value investors are doing it like this.


  • You miss the point of „Costs of missed opportunities“ if you (a) are always fully invested, (b) keep even underperforming stocks/assets forever until © some of those may go bankrupt.

    Same with other assets.

    Btw the price if assets matter if you buy. Not if you sell, this is a pure bet on raising prices. One should have an idea how much an asset can raise in price. (Or would you buy a property right now, because price will raise anyway?)


  • Sure. But why not just staying with SP500? It gives more returns and, to a high degree, is to big to fail. Central banks will intervene before the money burns.

    • If safety is your reason for diversification, think about the central banks.
    • If returns is your reason for diversification, think about market share of US economy and SP500 returns.

    From August 2012 to mid-November 2023, my portfolio returned 7.6% annually or 4.8% per year after inflation. This is above my long-term return expectation of 4% per year after inflation for a diversified portfolio. However, it’s still far below what U.S. stocks returned over this same time period. From August 2012 to mid-November 2023, the S&P 500 returned 13.1% annually or 10.2% per year after inflation.

    For me, asset diversification seems to be the game of millionaires to stay rich. For getting wealthy for standard people growth stocks seem to be the best way.




  • There‘s nothing more annoying than a group of „individuals“ on a night tour. Each move, either in this or that club, to the right or to the left, stay or lesve this place, as to be discussed in deep detail and from every micro perspective. Until a shared view emerges.

    It’s simply a better way to be a group of people to have a leader who hs a say. Good leaders care about the group members and might even have more experience than the groups individuals. I‘m quite happy to have a guide in a museum who can tell stories about the images. I‘m happy to have a leader to follow in the mountains. And I‘m happy to have someone leading a group through new fields of anything, so I learn from an experienced and might do my own steps in this s field alone.