• 0 Posts
  • 30 Comments
Joined 1 year ago
cake
Cake day: June 13th, 2023

help-circle

  • There is a significant difference between proxies and a direct missile attack launched by a nation-state. Just as there is a significant difference between the US arming a genocidal state, and the US actually dropping bombs directly on civilians. Not to say Iran and the US are not blameless for the actions of their proxies, but there are degrees here that are significant. You kneejerk “Iran bad, Israel good” view of the world is devoid of nuance. Maybe you should get yourself a twitch stream.




  • Iran’s IRGC say attack on Israel response to killing of Nasrallah

    Iran’s Fars news agency is reporting that Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said the missile attack under way on Israel is in response to the killing of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah last week as well as that of the Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh earlier this year.

    “In response to the martyrdom of Ismail Haniyeh, Hassan Nasrallah and (IRGC Guards commander) Nilforoshan, we targeted the heart of the occupied territories,” the IRGC said in a statement.

    So seems like Iran intends this to be a one and done response for everything Israel has done the last few months.


  • Depends on Israels response. When Iran did this in April in retaliation for Israel bombing an Iranean embassy, Iran was like “we have retaliated and are good now”, Israel responded but it was limited, and status quo was restored.

    If Israel decides to escalate (which is their default play lately), or if Iranean missiles hit forcing them to retaliate, there could be all out war, including involving the US.

    If you want a hint of what’s to come:

    The far-right Israeli finance minister (Bezalel Smotrich) writes on social media: “Like Gaza, Hezbollah and the state of Lebanon, Iran will regret the moment.”


  • That’s generally true, and if I’m going to be stuck with an American government excusing Israels war crimes, it might as well be one that protects abortion, but there is a big stupid “but” to go with that. Trump hates bibi. Not because of any considered foreign policy thing, but because Trump is mad bibi called biden to congratulate him on winning the election. Trump never has forgiven bibi for this, and has been criticizing bibi on the trail because of it. Our politics are fucked, I guess is what I’m trying to say.


  • Part of the problem with Google is it’s use of retrieval augmented generation, where it’s not just the llm answering, but the llm is searching for information, apparently through its reddit database from that deal, and serving it as the answer. The tip off is the absurd answers are exact copies of the reddit comments, whereas if the model was just trained on reddit data and responding on its own the model wouldn’t produce verbatim what was in the comments (or shouldn’t, that’s called overfitting and is avoided in the training process). The gemini llm on its own would probably give a better answer.

    The problem here seems to be Google trying to make the answers more trustworthy through rag, but they didn’t bother to scrub the reddit data their relying on well enough, so joke and shit answers are getting mixed in. This is more a datascrubbing problem then an accuracy problem.

    But overall I generally agree with your point.

    One thing I think people overlook though is that for a lot of things, maybe most things, there isn’t a “correct” answer. Expecting llms to reach some arbitrary level of “accuracy” is silly. But what we do need is intelligence and wisdom in these systems. I think the camera jam example is the best illustration of that. Opening the back of the camera and removing the film is technically a correct way to fix the jam, but it ruins the film so it’s not an ideal solution most of the time, but it takes intelligence and wisdom to understand that.




  • I heard a Russia expert on some podcast talking about the biggest thing to Putin is loyalty. That is why Nevalni is in prison and Prigozhin is a collection of pieces in a jar. Nevalni is an enemy, a trouble maker, who after Putin tried to kill us now in jail. He’ll probably die there, but Putin is in no rush about it. He doesn’t particularly care about Nevalni. Nevalni was never disloyal because he was never on the inside, he’s always been an outside agitator.

    Prigozhin was in the inner circle, he had Putin’s trust, and he betrayed it. He was disalloyal, the most serious of crimes in Putin’s Russia. The Russia expert said Prigozhin like knew when he retreated that his days were numbered. But why did Putin wait so long? He doesn’t like to feel like he’s pressured to do anything, he likes to take his time and strike when he feels like it, to make it clear that he’s making a decision to act, not reacting to circumstances. Also, he may have wanted to lull Prigozhin into a false sense of security, trick him into thinking maybe he had been forgiven. Prigozhin appears to have thought so, posting about how he and Wagner were staffing up in Africa.

    Anyway, the dude is cold, or at least that’s how he wants to be perceived. He’s sending a message about the importance of loyalty to him. Same with the Russia spies who got the nerve agent treatment in the UK after defecting to the west - disloyal = the harshest death penalty.



  • You have it worse I promise, that sounds miserable. I’m in northern California, but what the other reply you got said is accurate here as well. Lows in the 60Fs (15C), maybe even the upper 50s, when it’s really bad lows are in the mid 70s. Most days I have a fan in the window to cool things off overnight and even if not it gets cool enough that the AC won’t work itself to death overnight. I get up early so open all the windows, fans everywhere, and I try to get my place down to 70f (21c), close it all up by 9am, then try to ride it out without ac until the lows drop again. Humidity is very low where I am too. This Sunday it’s now saying 105 (41c) for a high and 66 (19c) for a low if that gives you an idea.



  • I was kind of surprised, where I am those are pretty normal temperatures, not for weeks on end but it can hit like that for a few days in a row. We’re expecting higher temperatures this weekend.

    Many Iranian cities and towns have suffered from temperatures above 40 degrees Celsius (104 Degrees Fahrenheit) in recent days, while the oil-rich southwestern city of Ahvaz hit 50 degrees Celsius on Tuesday. [122F]

    The capital city of Tehran experienced temperatures of 39 degrees Celsius on Wednesday.

    I just checked and their nightly lows are in the high 80sF so that sucks for sure. That 122F high is bonkers though, that’s pushing death valley territory. But overall it’s not worse than Arizona has been going through for like more than a month, highs above 110 and lows in the 90s. Greece’s heatwave seems like it is about on par to what Iran is going through, and I don’t remember hearing about them shutting down the country, just limiting outdoor work and deliveries during peak heat hours.

    But like you said, A/C might be a difference maker. I don’t know what Iran’s climate control availability is like, and this article didn’t say.




  • At times, however, Grusch was less forthcoming under oath than he had been in media interviews.

    In the interview with NewsNation in June, Grusch claimed the government had “very large, like a football-field kind of size” alien craft, while he told Le Parisien, a French newspaper, that the US had possession of a “bell-like craft” which Benito Mussolini’s government had recovered in northern Italy in 1933.

    On Wednesday, Grusch seemed unwilling to go into details on those claims, citing issues of security. Grusch told the hearing he was prepared to elaborate in private, but his reticence prompted speculation from doubters.

    Garrett Graff, a journalist and historian who is writing a book on the government’s hunt for UFOs, tweeted: “Very interesting to me that Dave Grusch is unwilling to state and repeat under oath at the #UFOHearings the most explosive (and outlandish) of his claims from his NewsNation interview. He seems to be very carefully dancing around repeating them.”

    Not to mention most of his testimony is second hand, things he was told not things he saw. And did he produce any documentary evidence? On its face I’m having a hard time differentiating this hearing from Project Camelot.


  • “The story aligns with a lot of similar stories that have played out, going back to the 1980s and 1970s, that together allege that the US government has kept an incredible secret, the literal most extraordinary secret that mankind could have, for not just weeks or months, but years and decades, with no meaningful leak or documentary evidence to ever come forward,” Graff previously told the Guardian.

    “I think when you look at the government’s ability to keep secret other really important secrets, there’s a lot of reason to doubt the capability of the government to do that.”

    That’s it for me. If aliens have visited Earth, and I’m not completely skeptical about that, but if they did I highly doubt the government would have the ability to hide it, let alone a decades long reverse engineering program.