Agreed. They’d also have to be pretty sure they’d make up the deficit from potential sanctions/lost exports. [https://trendeconomy.com/data/h2?commodity=TOTAL&reporter=China&trade_flow=Export,Import&partner=World&indicator=TV,YoY&time_period=2021,2022](20% of their GDP is exports ) with the US, Japan, and Korea making up close to 25% of that.
It’s probably why they are watching Russia so closely and investing in Africa heavily.
I feel like Elon still uses a magic 8 ball to make decisions.